Predicting Individual level Public heath Interventions by Infectious diseases modelling to control COVID-19: A Review

Abstract

Objective: To review and critically appraise the published literature using infectious disease models to the benefits of Individual level public health interventions in COVID-19

Design: Rapid Systematic review and critical appraisal

Data Sources: Pubmed, Google Scholar,medRxiv and bioRxiv

Study Selection and Extraction: We retrieved 21 studies after 3 level of screening. We identified 17 studies that developed model to predict social distancing and4 studies to predict public health measures like use of face mask and hand washing. The data was extracted using extraction sheet by following the CHARMS Checklist. The quality and risk of bias of the predicting model were assessed using the framework used in the review by R. C. Harris et al consisting of 14 criteria’s and the median score was 20/28.

Results: Included studies have predicted the benefit of social distancing on health care services and epidemic flattening. Individual level public health measures like wearing mask, hand washing consistently will reduce the infection. Few of the studies have also predicted no one measure can break the epidemic, along with social distancing other containment measures like closure of school, restriction of travel.

Conclusion: The public health interventions like social distancing and physical distancing, compulsory use of facial mask by all the people is the solution to bring down the epidemic and also to prevent further epidemic. Along with thisearly diagnosis, contact tracing and isolation will be the corner stone to get rid of this pandemic.