Dynamics of Land Use Change Using Markov Chains

Abstract

 The change in land use in the central metropolitan area of the city of Huancayo (ACMH) in the last three decades has increased as a result of the migration of the rural population to the city, generating a dispersed and scattered urban fabric with a decrease in population density and the loss of agricultural land, as well as water surfaces. Markov chains (MC) is a mathematical tool that allows to quantify the change in land use in the period between 1995 - 2035. The classification for land uses is: commercial residential zone, industrial, agricultural, and equipment. The results of the model indicate that, if urban growth is not controlled, the annual change rates for the year 2035 would have the following values: residential area decreases by 0.40%, commercial predominance increases by 0.90%, industrial zone increases by 10.30%, forestry area decreases by 2.80%, equipment increases by 1.40%, reserve area decreases by 2.30 and urban roads increase by 1.90%.