Analysis the Risk of the Ship Accident in Indonesia with Bayesian Network Model Approach

Abstract

The fluctuation of ship accidents by type of accident like aground, fire, collision, sinking, capsized and other cases indicate that efforts to reduce vessel accidents towards zero accident has not been reached. It was realized that the shipping industry is a potential that has a high risk level. Ship accident scene is complex and requires a multidisciplinary several approaches. This research was conducted with the aim of identifying and measuring patterns of relationships ship accident causal factors using Bayesian Network and make recommendation the efforts made to minimize the chances of a ship accident or structure based prediction pattern of Bayesian Network. The approach taken in this research through quantitative descriptive. Data collected through the survey respondents who had long been in the field of shipping as the primary data and the investigation report NTSC as secondary data. Based on Bayesian models Network found that the accident ship directly affected by natural factors and human factors. While technical factors, safety culture, safety and regulatory perception is directly related to the human factor. Technical factors, safety culture, the perception of safety and regulation did not give a significant influence, but when maximized the chances of a boat accident at 46.42%. Efforts are underway to decrease opportunity ship accidents is on these factors is done through continuous improvement committed both at the organizational level as well as personal.