Assessment of SARS-Cov-2 Antigen-Based Rapid Diagnostic Kit and Forecasting Using ARIMA Model Case Study of Pakistan

Abstract

The pandemic of corona virus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has infected millions of individuals around the globe. The descriptive retrospective study was conduct From March 2020 to May 2021 utilizing publicly available data on COVID-19 total and active cases, fatalities, and recoveries from three key health centers in Shangla district (DHQ Alpurai, THQ Puran, and THQ Besham). A total 17734 suspects, 1257 (7.0%) cases were Covid-19 positive, in which 1250 (99.44%) recovered and 7 (0.56%) were dead. The most effected age groups were 16-30 years old 35% and 46-72 years old 27%. The most highly effected tehsil was Alpurai (57.5 %). The most highly effected month was April (2021) with 436 positive cases followed by May (2021) 168 and June (2020) with 213 positive cases. Mortality rate was high in the month of April (2020) with 3 deaths followed by May and June (2020) with single deaths, and April and May (2021) with single deaths.We concluded that Covid-19 spread was observed in a spike in the month of May (2021), prompting harsh adoption of the specified measures by the local authority of Shangla district at the commencement of the COVID-19 pandemic.